NEWS & EVENTS

Asia after Afghanistan

On September 10, nearing the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, Dr. Kent Calder, interim Dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies | SAIS and Director of Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies led a discussion of the implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan for Asia, and the impact it will have on regional dynamics, relations, and geopolitics. Panelists included Professor Kuni Miyake of Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Mr. Ashley Townshend of United States Studies Centre, Dr. Joseph Chinyong Liow of Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, and Ambassador David Shear of Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies.

The panelists agreed that media and academic discourse describing the U.S. withdrawal as damaging to U.S. credibility has been overstated, and that conversely the move has been welcomed by allies in Asia as a sign that the U.S. will begin redirecting its attention and resources to its security partnerships in the region. Dr. Miyake questioned the notion of ‘after Afghanistan,’ citing the ongoing terrorism threat from the region faced by the East Asian Pacific and its allies. He further stated that he believes China to be defensive in nature, and therefore more likely to try to exert influence in the Middle East indirectly via Pakistan, rather than partner openly with the new Taliban government. Prof. Townshend expressed that Australia similarly welcomed the US withdrawal as an opportunity, but cautioned that the Biden Administration will need to continue to focus on long-term global issues as well as immediate security concerns. He emphasized the necessity of a U.S. Indo-Pacific economic strategy as critical to economic and strategic stability within the region.

Prof. Liow relayed concerns over the new dimensions of ISIS-K, their differences from the Taliban, and how those differences are already being reflected among South East Asian groups. He lamented the U.S. tendency of valuing South East Asia primarily vis-a-vis China, and warned that while the general U.S. activity in the South Pacific has been warmly welcomed, ‘the devil is in the details.’ Amb. Shear argued that the Chinese see the U.S. withdrawal primarily as a victory for its Pakistani partners and a loss for India, and warned that U.S. defensive support to India will be critical in preventing India from redirecting its focus away from the Pacific back towards its Northwestern borders, and to Kashmir in particular. He further emphasized the importance of deploying U.S. ambassadors to the region – currently tied up in the Senate – and advised leveraging the Quad not simply as a nascent military alliance, but as an active diplomatic tool.