NEWS & EVENTS

Japan-China Relations and the Changing Global Scene

On March 14, Director of the Reischauer Center Dr. Kent Calder, Professor Emeritus at Keio University Faculty of Law Dr. Yoshihide Soeya, former US Ambassador to Vietnam Amb. David Shear, and Senior Fellow for Asian-Pacific Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations Dr. Sheila A. Smith shared their thoughts on the future of Japan-China relations, in a virtual setting.

Dr. Kent Calder opened the discussion by introducing Dr. Soeya’s 2017 book, “Japan–China Relations in the Modern Era,” recently translated into English, which provides an insightful look into the past, present, and future of Japan–China relations.

Dr. Soeya emphasized that due to Japan’s geographical closeness to China, Tokyo must peacefully co-exist with an increasingly powerful and ambitious China. This is done by attempting to deter a Taiwan contingency, coordinating with allies on foreign policy, and maintaining good relations with China. Dr. Soeya also noted that the US and Japan might diverge on the issue of Taiwan.

Amb. Shear explained Washington’s perspective on Japan’s role in US-China competition. US officials have largely admitted that China’s behavior cannot be changed. Thus, the US and its allies, such as Japan, should build an international order more favorable to themselves and their allies. The US welcomes Japan’s new security documents, which demonstrate Japan’s intent to deter a stronger China. Amb. Shear points out that military deterrence should not dominate the US and Japanese approach to China. Diplomatic channels must remain open, and US should focus on building guardrails in its competition with China. Japan can help the US build these guardrails.

Dr. Smith identified several important factors that made the democratic community nervous, including controversy surrounding the origins of COVID-19, China’s crackdown on protests in Hong Kong’s, and the increasing threats China poses for Taiwan. Japan, while influenced by these factors, is particularly alarmed by the possibility of a China-Russia entente. Dr. Smith suggests that Japanese people will rethink how the nation will engage with China moving forward. Japan’s own strategy is shifting, but the general approach of maintaining stable relations with China has not changed.